reckless intuitions of an epistemic hygienist ([info]gustavolacerda) wrote,
@ 2005-11-24 13:49:00
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Entry tags:practical_epistemology, prediction_markets, weather

evaluating weather forecasts
Does anyone actually evaluate weather forecasts? It's not a very hard thing to keep track of.

But, AFAIK, no forecasters publically archive their data...

When are they going to put money where their mouth is? When are we going to check the price of weather futures instead of listening to unaccountable forecasters in the news?


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[info]zarex
2005-11-24 01:33 pm UTC (link)
Tradesports is starting to do this.

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[info]peamasii
2005-11-25 12:49 pm UTC (link)
I was going to say, there must be a UK-based site where you can place bets on weather odds. Or on election results, or on the outcome of high-profile court cases, etc. The British will happily bet on anything.

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Weather Markets
[info]r6
2005-11-27 05:03 pm UTC (link)
I really like this idea. Make a company that takes bets on high and low temperatures and precipitation in London for each day up to a year into the future. Fourteen days after the day, bets are paid out in accordance with official government measurements. You make money from the interest of the float. More cities are added as your business expands.
If only there way a cheap way of allowing people to place bets online.

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Re: Weather Markets
[info]gustavolacerda
2005-11-27 05:10 pm UTC (link)
Online payments are easy in the age of PayPal. I think the problem has to do with the legality. But surely, if online casinos aren't illegal, then gambling about the weather shouldn't be either.

(Reply to this) (Parent)
Re: Weather Markets
[info]henriknordmark
2005-11-28 12:04 pm UTC (link)
I like this idea as well and not only for things like the weather, but any type of useful information about the future. I reremember back in 2003, the US government was considering the possibility of setting up some sort of future political stability and future terrorist attack market. Thus, if you are an expert or have some sort of insider information about say the political situation in Saudia Arabia, you have a financial incentive to give out that information.

Unfortunately, the US government backed out. It was too controversial, although I don't really know why.

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